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Nigeria in Three Numbers

Official FX rate: ₦1,365/$ · June 2026 · CBN

Headline inflation: 15.69% · April 2026 · NBS (2024=100 base)

External reserves: $50.04bn · June 2026 · CBN

The headline: Nigeria’s macro position has materially stabilised. The naira has traded in a narrow band (₦1,330–₦1,520/$) for over six months — the narrowest range since the June 2023 float. Inflation on the rebased NBS index declined for three consecutive months before a modest April uptick, partly seasonal, partly the PMS price adjustment (₦1,533/L vs ₦1,289 in March). Reserves at $50bn are the highest since 2019.

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Three Reads This Month

1. H1 capital inflows: the strongest in seven years — and why composition matters

Foreign capital inflows reached $10.37 billion in Q1 2026 — an 83.8% increase year-on-year, the highest quarterly figure since 2019. Q2 2026 figures are not yet published, but the conditions that drove Q1 — the NGX equity rally (+135% since end-2024, All-Share Index at 242,593), a high MPR yield environment (26.5%), and naira stability — remained broadly in place through June.

The critical read is the composition, not the headline. 95.1% of Q1 inflows were portfolio investment — equities and fixed income. FDI was just 1.3%. Portfolio capital is rate-sensitive and fast-moving in a way project investment is not.

What to watch for Q2: if portfolio composition stays above 90%, the inflow story is primarily a carry trade. Durable investment attraction requires FDI to move — and FDI responds to operating environment improvements that take quarters, not months.

Source: NBS Capital Importation Report, Q1 2026.

2. Manufacturing PMI: one data point or the start of a trend?

Nigeria’s composite PMI fell to 49.4 in April 2026 — below the 50-point expansion threshold for the first time since December 2024, ending 16 consecutive months of growth. The April contraction coincided directly with the PMS price adjustment and the input-cost pass-through that followed.

Why one reading matters: PMI is a leading indicator, not a lagging one. It measures sentiment and activity plans, not output already produced. A sustained sub-50 PMI through Q3 would suggest the petrol price pass-through is still compressing margins — which would show up in non-oil GDP growth before any official output measure.

Source: MAN Purchasing Managers’ Index, April 2026.

3. FAAC at ₦2 trillion: what the record means for state-level fiscal capacity

The Federal Accounts Allocation Committee distributed ₦2,036.3 billion in March 2026 (on February 2026 revenue) — the first monthly disbursement above ₦2 trillion on record. The drivers: elevated crude receipts and a strong Customs collection month.

The national headline matters less than what it means at state level. FAAC is the primary revenue source for most of Nigeria’s 36 states. In the fiscal-capacity-constrained states (the bottom quartile by IGR/FAAC ratio), a record FAAC month can mean the difference between meeting payroll and not.

ONYX tracks FAAC disbursements at LGA level for all 774 local governments — the only granularity that reveals which local administrations are building fiscal headroom versus running on federal transfers.

The structural read: even at ₦2tn/month, Nigeria’s consolidated fiscal position remains under pressure. Total national debt is ₦159.3tn (Q4 2025); debt service consumed roughly 40% of retained FGN revenue in 2025. A record FAAC month doesn’t change that arithmetic.

Source: FMF/NBS FAAC communiqué, March 2026.

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Reconciliation of the Month

The segment that makes this newsletter different: one figure where sources diverged, and how we resolved it.

Indicator: FX Parallel Rate / Premium — June 2026

Most Nigeria market commentary references the “parallel rate” as though it were a single, observable figure. It is not. The parallel market is fragmented across bureau de change operators, informal exchange networks, and increasingly, cryptocurrency P2P platforms. Different sources report materially different “parallel rates” — and none of them publish a methodology.

ONYX has wired its own parallel FX feed: Bybit USDT/NGN P2P rates, sampled on a daily scheduled pull. The premium over the CBN official rate is a live signal for FX pressure that no other Nigerian data platform currently publishes with methodology transparency.

As of June 2026: official CBN rate ₦1,365/$; Bybit USDT/NGN implied rate ₦1,385/$; implied premium 2.1%.

What the premium signals: a premium below ~5% is consistent with a functioning managed float and adequate CBN intervention. A premium widening toward 15–20% historically precedes a devaluation episode. At 2.1%, the parallel market is not pricing a devaluation.

Why this matters: if your model uses the official rate and the premium has moved, you are mispricing naira-denominated cash flows. The receipts are in the platform.

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What the Composite Indices Say — Mid-Year Update

ONYX maintains three national composite indices, rebuilt on every data ingest:

Nigeria Investment Climate: 46.8 / 100 (90% CI: 34.9–57.0)

Neutral, improving. Capital inflows at a 7-year high. NGX +135% since end-2024. Not yet above the 55-point threshold that characterised the 2007–2014 expansion cycle — but the direction is right.

Fiscal Stress: 63.5 / 100 (90% CI: 61.0–66.1)

Elevated, stable. FAAC record offsets slightly, but ₦159.3tn in national debt and debt service at ~40% of retained FGN revenue means the structural constraint hasn’t moved. Tight CI bands (±2.5 pts) — this score is robust to weight assumptions.

FX Pressure: 14.2 / 100 (90% CI: 10.9–17.3)

Low — down sharply from 48.6 in 2024. Reserves at $50bn, parallel premium contained at 2.1%.

The 90% bands are from Monte Carlo sensitivity over composite weights (5,000 draws, Dirichlet perturbation). When the band is wide, we say so.

Mid-year read: stabilisation, not expansion. The macro floor is in. The structural ceiling hasn’t lifted.

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In Brief

Real GDP: 3.89% (Q1 2026). FY2025 = 3.87%. Nominal GDP ₦441.5tn.

MPR: 26.5% (held at May 2026 MPC). Two cuts in H1 2026 total 100bps from 27.5%.

Public debt: ₦159.3tn (Q4 2025). Q1 2026 DMO figure pending.

Oil production: 1.49 mbpd crude (April 2026). Trending toward OPEC+ quota of 1.5 mbpd.

NGX equity market: ASI 242,593 (June 2026), market cap ₦155.6tn. +135% since end-2024.

Non-oil exports: ₦9.97tn in Q1 2026 = 47% of total exports — the highest non-oil share on record.

FAAC: ₦2,036.3bn (March 2026, on Feb revenue).

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A Note on the Terminal

Since Issue #1, ONYX has shipped several updates worth knowing about:

Live sparklines on every indicator and KPI card — trend-at-a-glance without clicking into a chart.

Sector peer ranking — where Nigeria sits on any indicator versus comparable EM economies.

Parallel FX live feed — Bybit P2P USDT/NGN, updated daily. The only Nigeria platform publishing this with methodology.

Sub-national snapshot — the national homepage now surfaces state-level FAAC, POS, and conflict signals inline. The 774-LGA layer is one click deeper.

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Access the Full Terminal

Request access → onyxdata.io

For briefings, bespoke sector analysis, or a pilot: hello@onyxdata.io

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The ONYX Brief is produced by ONYX Data & Intelligence Inc., Ontario, Canada.

Every figure is sourced from primary publications; methodology is public at onyxdata.io/methodology.

© 2026 ONYX Data & Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Not investment advice.

Nigeria in Three Numbers

Official FX rate: ₦1,365 / $ (June 2026, CBN)

Headline inflation: 15.69% (April 2026, NBS — 2024=100 base)

External reserves: $50.04 bn (June 2026, CBN)

The headline: Nigeria’s macro position has materially stabilised. The naira has traded in a narrow band (₦1,330–₦1,520/$) for over six months. Inflation, on the rebased NBS index, has declined for three consecutive months — 15.06% in February, 15.38% in March, 15.69% in April. That uptick is partly seasonal and partly the April PMS price adjustment (₦1,533/L versus ₦1,289 in March). The trajectory is still downward relative to 2024 peaks above 34%.

Reserves at $50bn are the highest since 2019. The CBN’s dual mandate — rate stability and reserve accumulation — is, for the first time in years, not obviously in conflict.

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Three Reads This Month

1. Manufacturing contracted for the first time in 16 months

Nigeria’s composite PMI fell to 49.4 in April 2026 — below the 50-point expansion threshold for the first time since December 2024. The contraction is narrow (just under neutral) but significant: it ends a run of 16 consecutive months of expansion and coincides with the petrol price shock.

PMI is a sentiment and activity composite; a single sub-50 reading does not constitute a trend. The prior quarter average (Q1 2026) was 55.4, which is strong. But the direction matters: if the April PMS price pass-through persists into May and June, input cost pressure could drag PMI further below neutral through H2 2026.

What to watch: May PMI (due ~June 20, 2026). If it confirms below 50, the manufacturing outlook deteriorates. If it recovers above 52, April was a blip.

Source: MAN Purchasing Managers’ Index, April 2026.

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2. Capital importation surged to a six-year high

Foreign capital inflows into Nigeria reached $10.37 billion in Q1 2026 — an 83.8% increase year-on-year, and the highest quarterly figure since 2019.

The composition is almost entirely portfolio: 95.1% portfolio investment (equities + fixed income), 1.3% FDI, 3.6% other loans. That portfolio dominance is both good news (foreign investors are re-engaging) and a risk flag (hot money is more sensitive to rate differentials and sentiment shocks than FDI or project loans).

To contextualise: Q4 2025 inflows were $6.44bn. The Q1 2026 reading represents a 61% QoQ jump. Two factors plausibly explain it: (i) the NGX equity rally — the All-Share Index reached 242,593 in June 2026, up from 102,926 at end-2024 (+135%), making Nigerian equities one of the strongest-performing EM markets globally; and (ii) Nigeria’s relatively high yield environment (MPR 26.5%) attracting fixed-income carry.

Risk to watch: portfolio inflows can reverse quickly. The 2016–17 and 2020 episodes both saw rapid outflows on CBN policy uncertainty. The CBN’s commitment to FX market liquidity will be tested if global risk-off conditions materialise.

Source: NBS Capital Importation Report Q1 2026.

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3. The naira’s quiet stabilisation

The official exchange rate closed at ₦1,365/$ in June 2026, roughly flat versus May (₦1,374/$) and meaningfully stronger than the Q1 2026 peak above ₦1,520/$. Three months of gradual appreciation, combined with $50bn in reserves, suggests the CBN has regained some control of the float it launched in June 2023.

Context: the float saw the official rate move from ~₦466/$ to ~₦1,500/$ in eight months. From the 2024 trough, the naira has recovered approximately 10%. That’s less a reversal than a stabilisation — the structural fiscal and current-account pressures have not been resolved.

ONYX’s FX Pressure composite index scored 14.2 / 100 for 2025 (lower = less pressure), down sharply from 48.6 in 2024. The index blends four components — current account balance, import cover, real interest rate, and private credit depth — each scored on its causal percentile rank against its own historical range.

Source: CBN daily FX fixing series; ONYX composite engine.

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Reconciliation of the Month

The segment that makes this newsletter different: one figure where sources diverged, and how we resolved it.

Indicator: Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) — April 2026

Divergence: 26.75% (Dataphyte secondary database) vs. 26.5% (CBN MPC communiqué, 20 May 2026)

At the May 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting — the 305th MPC — the CBN retained the MPR at 26.5%. This is consistent with the February 2026 cut of 50 basis points (from 27.5% to 27.0%) and the March 2026 further cut (to 26.5%).

A widely-used secondary data source (Dataphyte) carried 26.75% for April 2026 — a figure that matches no MPC decision in the public record. The most likely explanation is a database lag that captured a mid-revision state, or interpolation between the February and pre-February rates.

ONYX resolution: the Dataphyte observation (26.75%) was flagged during our daily validation pass, cross-checked against the CBN MPC communiqué (primary source), and deleted. The canonical value — 26.5% — was recorded with the primary-source citation. The Dataphyte row is retained in the audit trail (observation_revisions table) with revision_type=’superseded’.

Why it matters: the 25bp difference is small in absolute terms but not in model terms. A 26.75% MPR implies a different real rate (using April CPI of 15.69%), a different Taylor-Rule residual, and a different read on policy stance. If your model inherits the wrong print, it inherits a wrong policy characterisation.

This is what “sourced and reconciled” means in practice — not just metadata labels, but an active process that catches discrepancies that would otherwise propagate silently.

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What the Composite Indices Say

ONYX maintains three national composite indices, each scored 0–100 on a causal percentile basis:

Nigeria Investment Climate: 46.8 / 100 (90% CI: 34.9–57.0) — Neutral, improving from 2022–24 trough

Fiscal Stress: 63.5 / 100 (90% CI: 61.0–66.1) — Elevated, driven by debt/GDP and financing mix

FX Pressure: 14.2 / 100 (90% CI: 10.9–17.3) — Low, improved sharply from 2024 peak of 48.6

The 90% confidence intervals reflect Monte Carlo sensitivity over the composite weights (5,000 draws, Dirichlet perturbation). The Fiscal Stress bands are tight (±2.5 points) — the score is robust to weight assumptions. The Investment Climate bands are wider (±11 points) — appropriate caution given that it nests two sub-composites and six components.

Interpretation: the macro picture is one of stabilisation, not expansion. FX pressure has normalised; fiscal stress remains structurally elevated (₦159tn in national debt, debt-service consuming ~40% of retained revenue); the investment climate is recovering but not yet at the 55+ threshold that characterised the 2007–2014 expansion cycle.

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In Brief

Real GDP growth: 3.89% (Q1 2026); FY2025 = 3.87%; GDP now ₦441.5tn nominal.

Public debt: ₦159.3tn (Q4 2025). Q1 2026 figures not yet published by DMO.

FAAC disbursement: ₦2,036.3bn distributed in March 2026 (on February revenue) — the first month above ₦2tn. Record driven by oil receipts and Customs collections.

Oil production: 1.49 mbpd crude (April 2026), 1.66 mbpd total liquids. Trending toward OPEC+ quota of 1.5 mbpd.

Trade surplus: ₦7.55tn in Q1 2026 (exports ₦21.17tn, imports ₦13.62tn). Non-crude exports ₦9.97tn = 47% of exports — the highest non-oil share on record.

Equity market: NGX ASI 242,593 (June 2026), market cap ₦155.6tn. +135% since end-2024.

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The ONYX Brief is produced by ONYX Data & Intelligence Inc., Ontario, Canada.

Every figure is sourced from primary publications; methodology is public at onyxdata.io/methodology.

© 2026 ONYX Data & Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved. Not investment advice.